Roger Janeway
Member II
Christian recently provided a helpful overview of the general seasonal variation in wind in another forum, but I would like to know whether any sailors in the Santa Monica Bay recommend any particular sources for predictions. I am familiar with the regular afternoon westerly we get in the summer, so it's possible that my problem getting a reasonably accurate forecast is confined to these shifty winter conditions. I accept that the answer might be that there is no answer.
I'm most focused on the accuracy of predictions about 18-24 hours ahead of the mid-day or afternoon time one wants to sail, because that's when your friends would like to be notified. But even morning predictions for later the same day would be great.
I have been using PredictWind, Windfinder, Windy, and SailFlow. If the prediction is for 10kt or more, I don't care about the details and will go sailing. But often it seems the predictions are for 5-6 kt but when one actually goes down and takes a look, there's fine sailing at 8-12 kt. The knot difference is small, but the sailing difference is big.
Windfinder gives me the readings from the anemometer atop the UCLA Marina boathouse, but often its predictions for that same spot are significantly off from its actual real-time measurements (even when the "prediction" is for now!)
Predictwind has lately been frequently predicting nearly calm conditions outside Marina del Rey, when reality gives you 8+ knots.
On the flip side, the Coast Guard's recent small craft advisories and some of the wind predictions during Santa Ana events have kept me home, but when I examine the actual wind in real time, it's not bad at all and could have been a great day of sailing.
Is the only answer to move to the Marina and look out at the water to decide whether you want to sail? That seems expensive. I am only 10 miles inland, but the palm trees in Midcity LA are not reliable indicators of ocean conditions.
I'm most focused on the accuracy of predictions about 18-24 hours ahead of the mid-day or afternoon time one wants to sail, because that's when your friends would like to be notified. But even morning predictions for later the same day would be great.
I have been using PredictWind, Windfinder, Windy, and SailFlow. If the prediction is for 10kt or more, I don't care about the details and will go sailing. But often it seems the predictions are for 5-6 kt but when one actually goes down and takes a look, there's fine sailing at 8-12 kt. The knot difference is small, but the sailing difference is big.
Windfinder gives me the readings from the anemometer atop the UCLA Marina boathouse, but often its predictions for that same spot are significantly off from its actual real-time measurements (even when the "prediction" is for now!)
Predictwind has lately been frequently predicting nearly calm conditions outside Marina del Rey, when reality gives you 8+ knots.
On the flip side, the Coast Guard's recent small craft advisories and some of the wind predictions during Santa Ana events have kept me home, but when I examine the actual wind in real time, it's not bad at all and could have been a great day of sailing.
Is the only answer to move to the Marina and look out at the water to decide whether you want to sail? That seems expensive. I am only 10 miles inland, but the palm trees in Midcity LA are not reliable indicators of ocean conditions.